RESEARCH REPORT
Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST
$1,012.28
As of 2026-11-01
Research note — 2026-11-01. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
Costco Wholesale Corporation trades near $1,012.28 on a trailing multiple of about 48.8x versus its own 5-year median near 43.6x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~48.8 | ~43.6 | +12% |
| P/E (forward) | ~40.4 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 20.76 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 12.8% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $906.17 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (43.6x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $1,067.59 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $1,042.50 — Midpoint of $770.00–$1,315.00 published range.
Street targets run from $770.00 to $1,315.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- Housing and Food Now Take Nearly Half of What Americans Spend, the Most in 15 Years
- Costco Is Up 19% in 2026 as It Reinvests Tariff Refunds “to Give Value Back to Our Members”
- Stock Market Today, Oct. 30: Amazon Misses Revenue and Earnings Expectations
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Levi Strauss Faces Class Action Lawsuit Over Tariff Refunds
- $100 Invested In Costco Wholesale 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
- How New Rules And Robotaxi Pressure At Uber Technologies (UBER) Has Changed Its securities research Story
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~48.8x rather than its 5-year ~43.6x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 2026-12-10
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-11-01 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Nov 7, 2026|Costco (COST) Brings Real Time Health Benefit Checkout To More Than 600 Warehouses(Yahoo)
Costco Wholesale (NasdaqGS:COST) is now integrated with NationsBenefits' Flex Card across more than 600 U.S. warehouses. The rollout lets eligible health plan members redeem over the counter, healthy food, and wellness benefits directly at Costco checkout. NationsBenefits' Flex Card processes these health related purchases in real time, reducing manual reimbursement steps for members. The new Costco and NationsBenefits Flex Card redemption at checkout is only one piece of what investors...
Nov 6, 2026|Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week of November 8(SeekingAlpha)
Get the latest dividend activity for Dividend Champions, Contenders, and Challengers. Read this week's list here.
Nov 6, 2026|Costco's October Net Sales Jump 12.6% as Digital Growth Accelerates(Yahoo)
Costco's October sales surge 12.6%, fueled by strong comparable sales and digital growth, but its premium valuation and earnings revisions raise concerns.
Nov 6, 2026|Rate Hikes Could Be Coming: History Likes These 4 Consumer Staples Stocks(Yahoo)
The Fed ended its pause, and traders now price in another hike by December. Three past tightening cycles reveal which household-name staples stocks protected portfolios, and one of them beat the market every single time.
Nov 6, 2026|iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary (IYC) Adds Amazon and Tesla on Nov. 4(Yahoo)
The fund bought $244.2 million of stock, adding to 153 positions and trimming none, with $33.6 million going into Amazon.
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 4,552 | $0 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 572.834 | $583,265.31 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 647.297 | $659,084.28 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 975.02 | $992,775.11 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 732.304 | $745,639.26 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Sullivan John Christopher (Executive VP) | Sell | 835.794 | $851,013.81 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Self Adam Webb (Executive Vice President) | Sell | 61.663 | $62,785.88 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Self Adam Webb (Executive Vice President) | Sell | 64.211 | $65,380.28 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
| Fund | Shares | Position | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 39,170,487 | $33.8B | — |
| State Street | 18,384,951 | $17.2B | — |
| BlackRock | 12,297,210 | $10.5B | — |
| BlackRock Institutional Trust | 272,970 | $43.7M | — |
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.