RESEARCH REPORT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT
$521.91
As of 2026-11-01
Research note — 2026-11-01. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
Microsoft Corporation trades near $521.91 on a trailing multiple of about 27.2x versus its own 5-year median near 25.1x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~27.2 | ~25.1 | +9% |
| P/E (forward) | ~21.6 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 19.16 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 67.7% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $480.57 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (25.1x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $631.09 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $655.00 — Midpoint of $440.00–$870.00 published range.
Street targets run from $440.00 to $870.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- Microsoft (MSFT) Lands $25 Billion Bond Deal As AI Push Deepens
- 5 Best High Growth Stocks Outside Big Tech
- 5 Most Profitable Stocks of the Past 5 Years
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Microsoft just gave Nvidia shareholders a reason to pay attention
- 5 insightful analyst questions from Microsoft’s Q3 earnings call
- The AI Red Queen Effect: Why Big Tech Can’t Afford to Stop Spending
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~27.2x rather than its 5-year ~25.1x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 2027-01-26
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-11-01 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Nov 7, 2026|Microsoft (MSFT) Is Pulling Back From Key Neocloud Data Center Deals(Yahoo)
Microsoft (NasdaqGS:MSFT) is winding down several neocloud data center capacity deals, including a non-renewal of its Oracle arrangement. The company is exiting relationships with operators such as Nscale and IREN, reducing outsourced capacity tied to neocloud hubs. Management is refocusing on more flexible, in-house data centers as regulators, cost pressures, sustainability rules, and anti-AI protests reshape project economics. The decision to pull back from neocloud data center deals is...
Nov 7, 2026|Goldman raises global data center capacity forecast to 273 GW by 2030(Yahoo)
Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for global data center capacity to 273 gigawatts by 2030 from 217 gigawatts previously, citing stronger artificial intelligence infrastructure demand and expectations for further project announcements.
Nov 6, 2026|Mega-Cap Default Risk Update(SeekingAlpha)
The mega-caps as a group fell sharply this week along with the rest of the market.
Nov 6, 2026|If I Could Buy and Hold Only 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Through a Democratic Congress, It Would Be This One(Yahoo)
Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are plunging following the results of the midterm elections.
Nov 6, 2026|A Retiree Who Bought 1,000 Oracle Shares at $39 Just Watched Microsoft Walk Away(Yahoo)
Microsoft is winding down an AI cloud deal with Oracle, a stock already 65% below its peak. Here is what that means for a retiree who bought 1,000 shares at $39 in 2016.
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Coleman Amy (EVP, Chief Human Resources Off) | Sell | 31.944 | $17,048.19 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Hood Amy (EVP, Chief Financial Officer) | Sell | 3,387 | $1.8M |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Hood Amy (EVP, Chief Financial Officer) | Sell | 2,927 | $1.6M |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Hood Amy (EVP, Chief Financial Officer) | Sell | 991 | $541,589.82 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
| Fund | Shares | Position | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group | 644,039,633 | $311.5B | — |
| State Street | 315,653,206 | $117.7B | — |
| BlackRock | 195,214,459 | $87.3B | — |
| BlackRock Institutional Trust | 18,729,123 | $1.2B | — |
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.