RESEARCH REPORT
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PYPL
$57.01
As of 2026-11-01
Research note — 2026-11-01. Educational analysis, not financial advice.
The one-line version
PayPal Holdings, Inc. trades near $57.01 on a trailing multiple of about 10.9x versus its own 5-year median near 11.0x, against contested Street targets and the usual concentration and execution risks. That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
That's the tension. Everything below is the detail.
1. What you're paying
| Now | Its own 5-year median | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (trailing) | ~10.9 | ~11.0 | -1% |
| P/E (forward) | ~9.7 | — | — |
| EPS (TTM) | 5.24 | — | — |
| Gross margin | 40.5% | — | — |
What that means in plain terms: the gap versus the company's own history is the growth or durability the market is already pricing. It is not automatically wrong — it is the bet.
Fair-value anchors on file:
- 5-year median P/E multiple: $57.87 — Applies the 5-year median multiple (11.0x) to trailing EPS.
- Street mean target: $57.10 — Average published analyst target.
- Street target midpoint: $58.00 — Midpoint of $36.00–$80.00 published range.
Street targets run from $36.00 to $80.00. A wide spread means the name is contested, not consensus.
2. What the bulls are counting on
- Street coverage and recent filings supply the constructive case; pull the latest 10-Q for segment detail.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
3. What the bears see
- Multiple risk: paying above the company's own history embeds growth that still has to show up in the numbers.
- Concentration and execution: watch customer, geography, and product-cycle dependency in the next filings.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
4. What would have to be true
For the stock to justify ~10.9x rather than its 5-year ~11.0x, roughly all of the following need to neutral:
- Growth or margin durability shows up in the next several reports, not just in narrative.
- Key revenue concentrations survive competitive and regulatory pressure.
- Execution on the current product or services cycle stays on schedule.
- The Street target range compresses as results clarify the contested assumptions.
Ask yourself honestly: how many of those would you bet on individually? Multiply your answers together.
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
5. What to watch next
- Next earnings date: 1793104200
- Trailing and forward multiples versus the company's own history
- Segment growth rates in the next 10-Q / earnings release
- Material Form 4 and 13F changes
- Whether the Street high-to-low target spread narrows or widens
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Bull case, bear case, assumptions, and what to watch next.
6. What this note does not do
It doesn't tell you to buy or sell. It won't, ever.
You have the valuation in context, the strongest version of both cases, and the specific assumptions the current price depends on. What you do with that depends on your time horizon, your existing exposure, your risk tolerance, and what else you could do with the money — none of which we know.
If you want someone to tell you what to do, you want a licensed financial adviser, and that is a genuinely reasonable thing to want.
Educational and informational purposes only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. GetStockReport is not a registered investment adviser. Figures are as of 2026-11-01 and go stale quickly — verify against primary sources before acting. All investments carry risk including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
8. Analyst ratings & targets
No recent activity
Analyst opinions change frequently. Past upgrades do not predict future returns.
9. Important news
Nov 6, 2026|American Express vs. PayPal: Which Stock Does Wall Street Expect to Grow Faster Through 2027?(Yahoo)
Key TakeawaysAnalysts expect American Express’s normalized EPS to rise 31% from 2025 to 2027, against 11% for PayPal. American Express’s higher forward P/E is backed by that faster growth, which makes it the better buy of the two today.
Nov 6, 2026|Is PayPal Stock Ready For A Year Of Higher Spending?(Yahoo)
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Nov 6, 2026|Block Jumps 11% in Two Days as Q3 Gross Profit Beats Its Own Guide by $110 Million(Yahoo)
Key TakeawaysBlock jumped 15. 3% on Wednesday to a new 52-week high after third-quarter gross profit grew 22% to $3.
Nov 6, 2026|How much TSLA stock does Tesla CEO Elon Musk actually own?(Yahoo)
Elon Musk joined the ranks of billionaires largely on the back of his massive Tesla stake. Here’s how many shares he owns in the EV maker and how he accumulated his shares.
Nov 6, 2026|PayPal Is Up 15% in Six Months After a Q3 Beat: Take Profits, or Buy More?(Yahoo)
Key TakeawaysPayPal raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to about $5. 60 after third-quarter EPS of $1.
News headlines are reported as-is. Verify important claims with original sources.
10. Insider Form 4 activity
| Date | Executive | Action | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 732 | $40,530.84 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 2,727 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 1,291 | $72,425.1 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Natali Chris (SVP, Chief Accounting Officer) | Sell | 2,727 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 1,639 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 907 | $50,882.7 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Keller Frank (Pres., Checkout Sol. & PayPal) | Sell | 1,639 | $0 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Webster Aaron (EVP, Global Chief Risk Officer) | Sell | 5,900 | $0 |
Form 4 filings are routine transactions. Scheduled sales (10b5-1 plans) are normal and not signals.
11. Institutional 13F holdings
No recent activity
These are 45-day lagged filings (SEC requirement). Position changes happened in the past.
12. Earnings this week
No recent activity
Earnings dates are estimates and may shift. EPS estimates are consensus, not predictions.